Stronger past evidence
Yes. This pattern held up in the past examples we found.
Are RISE forecasts more reliable than DROP forecasts?
- How often it worked
- 56.1% 192 worked · 150 did not
- Past examples
- 342 69 different shares
- Middle recorded result
- +0.9% The middle result, not an average
How the groups compared
Show me how you worked it out
- Evidence dates
- 21 May 2024 – 7 Aug 2026
- Examples checked
- 446
- Data version
- bsp-evidence-2026-08-19
- Test engine
- tradour-lab-engine-v1
The likely range from this test runs from 50.8% to 61.3%. A wider range means more uncertainty.
- This uses the recorded source-linked result, not a fully checked market-price return.
- This is a look back at data Tradour had already seen, not a fresh test on new examples.
- Some examples share the same company or market event, so they may not be fully independent.